When Jay Butler Director of ASU’s Realty Studies Center releases and comments on data, the mainstream media jumps.
Catherine Reagor of the Arizona Republic reports in “Home Sales Up but still Sputtering”, and Misty Williams of the East Valley Tribune has a more positive spin writing, “Home Sales Rising so far this Year.”
The gist of ASU’s report is that home sales have climbed steadily this year, but are still depressed from a year ago. Whether this is a typical seasonal pick up, or the beginning of a market shift, only time will tell.
ASU reports 4,335 existing homes were sold in March, up 15.6% from February. But the March 2008 numbers are down 19.5% from March 2007’s 5,385 sales and are the lowest March numbers since 1996 (with 3,270 sales).
The good news from the study is that the median existing home price in the Valley was flat at $220,000.
So, it’s a mixed bag. While everyone would like to see prices rising, in our current market, prices not declining is a good and fairly novel thing.
Reagor did write:
If home sales climb again this month from March’s level, and home prices don’t fall again, it could signal the housing market has hit bottom.
Lots of “if’s”, “and’s” and “could’s” in there, but it is true. And as I said in the Tribune article, I think we’re near the bottom of the pricing decline.
I do of course, reserve the right to be wrong about that. Misty left out the “I don’t have a crystal ball” part…
And if I may rail a moment on the mainstream media (like that’s never happened before…), I find it annoying that neither the East Valley Tribune, the Republic, or the Phoenix Business Journal linked to the source of the ASU data. I searched the ASU Realty Studies home page and found nothing on 2008 numbers. How hard would it be to put a link in an online article? If anyone has the actual data, I’d love to see it.
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The Phoenix Real Estate Guy was started by Jay Thompson, and I have a little blogging problem... he liked to say...
Seriously Jay, the key figure for such a large area as Phoenix, is a jump in sales of over 15%. Give or take, that's 500 homes difference in a month. It's the trends that help. It always cracks me up when MSM falls back on the old 'year over year' approach.
Of what relevance is that figure, when the circumstances last year were so different than now? The question for which an answer might yield real gold, is: What's the difference between February and March? Nothing empirical — with the lone exception, possibly, of the public's perception of the market.
I'm resisting the urge to say Bingo! but barely.
Well at least you’re giving my Alma Mater it’s due (Real Estate Program ’96). Jay is a great researcher… I used to work on the studies. I’m not sure how they do them today, but 10 years ago it was periodic research calls by students. Ahh…the joy of cold calling. Knowing a little about the historical metro Phoenix market, I’ve got to agree with you. In Phoenix, a flat market isn’t the worst thing to have. The late 80’s and early 90’s were pretty volatile both in terms of absorption and valuation. Hopefully, this time around the cycle will not be another roller coaster ride.
Perhaps, but the public's perception is important, BawldGuy.
Homedealer — I obviously didn't make myself clear, as that was my point. The public's perception had to be one of the biggest factors in sales increasing over 15% in 30 days. It's hugely important.
MSM are doing their level best to ensure negative spin by constantly talking about year over year. I'm not saying that stat isn't important, but when the circumstances are obviously changing in real time, its value diminishes tremendously.
Here's a take on foreclosures. It has a secondary link back to my real estate site so I understand if you delete it:
Here are the sales numbers for March 2008, taken directly from MLS:
Total sold – 4,291
Total sold that were listed as distressed – 1,162
That means roughly 27% of all home sales in the Metro Phoenix area were either: a.) court approval required, b.)lender/corp approval required, or c.)lender owned property. For more details related to individual cities go to:
http://www.foreclosureexpert.info/2008/04/march-f…
Full press release here.
http://www.arizonarealestatenotebook.com/2008/04/…
The last line mentions an RSS feed although I haven't tried it.