I’m a big fan of statistics and charts. 20+ years in the semiconductor manufacturing industry will do that to a guy. Heck, I even took a second semester of statistics in college as an elective, because I liked it.
That doesn’t stop me though from just “getting a feeling” about something.
Over the past couple weeks, just such a feeling has been brewing about the real estate market. It started with a surge in home search registrations both here and on ThompsonsRealty.com. At the same time, we started noticing more calls to the office, and more email traffic.
All this at a time of year that is typically one of the slowest. Kind of makes me think maybe this is an indicator of the real estate market picking up a little steam.
Sending a message out on Twitter is a great way to see what others think, so off this one went:
Quickly these responses came back (click each graphic for larger image):
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From Benjamin Day, Colorado Springs, CO: |
From Brandon Marchand, Spokane, WA: |
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From Eric Stegemann, St. Louis, MO: |
From Jonathan Osman, Charlotte, NC: |
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From Kathleen Buckley, Hopkinton, MA: |
From Larry Holtz, Denver, CO: |
Before some statistics super stud points out this isn’t a valid sample size, nor is anything presented here even remotely close to being statistically significant, let me just say that’s exactly the point.
This isn’t a technical analysis of the Phoenix real estate market (nor any other market for that matter). I’m not even considering things like inventory levels, sales, prices or any of a dozen factors that go into a full-fledged market condition analysis.
But when multiple agents all across the county notice an uptick in their specific markets, it’s hard not to stop and say, “Hmmmm”¦”. Maybe this is just an aberration. Maybe it means absolutely nothing. But maybe, just maybe, it means there really are more buyers entering the market, more sellers setting realistic prices, and there is increasing confidence in the market all the way around.
Maybe.
The Phoenix Real Estate Guy was started by Jay Thompson, and I have a little blogging problem... he liked to say...
Jay, I have seen an uptick in buyer activity in the West Valley also. Nothing to write home about, but encouraging.
2 semesters of Stat? Incredible.
There's a fine line between "incredible" and "stupid" Jim…
Well, I guess they are the same ones that were so gunho about the tax credit. I'm wishing too, Jay. But, I think my letter to Santa may get me better results. Good Luck and have yourself a merry little Christmas.
Actually Greg, most of what we're seeing with truly active buyers wouldn't qualify for tax credit.
I should try a letter to Santa though, couldn't hurt. 😉
Merry Christmas to you too!
Interesting and hopeful. I’m not in real estate other then I have a house that needs to go on the market but can’t until it starts picking up and the values increase. When we bought our home in 2005, I knew then what I know now, my home price was way over inflated and I tried to tell that to my husband. He just didn’t believe me.
Husbands. Who needs 'em? 😉
Hang in there!
Over the last month or so I have seen a significant increase in the leads and calls coming from my websites. And people who are looking to buy in the next couple of months! I always see an increase at this time, since I focus my site to active adults and second home buyers, as the first snow hits, the leads come in for AZ – but the increase has been more than in recent years.
Hunches can get you through the toughest of decisions.
Jay – you took statistics as and elective!? An elective?! I'm not sure what that says about you – but it definitely says something. 🙂
Same here. Being a former equities trader, I used stats, charts and indicators quite a bit. But at times, when you've been immersed in something for a good stretch of time, you do just "get a feeling". In fact, I'm seeing droves of newbie/joe public flip investors coming out of the woodwork in November and December wanting to rehab and flip foreclosures. And just like in the equity market, most of them are trying to buy in way after the smart money has already been the market for 12+ months.
Have a great holiday!
It's funny, hunches have always got me into deep you know what when it comes to buying real estate. I think more sellers are setting a more realistic price for their properties, but only because of the financial mess that many folk are in right now.
I am also seeing a lot more hits onto the website and my phone is ringing a little more often also. I am just hoping that the banks start letting go of these short sales then I will have some sales to talk about… I enjoy your knowledge and your wit Jay have a nice Holiday.
John
We are seeing an increase in web traffic and online buyer contacts this month at our Marietta real estate website in Georgia. December has been good to us in the past, so it might be the month. However, I am all on board with spreading a bit of subjective good news by claiming that things are getting better.
Web traffic down, registrations up. Listing inquiries up. All of this is happening over the last 3 weeks. Tax credit? People feeling better about things? Don't know, but I like what I am seeing.
Good thing you have done here, Thanks!
Simon Salloom LA Times: Southern California home prices and sales improve in November
Southern California's real estate industry, decimated by the mortgage meltdown and housing bust, is stirring to life again — even making hiring plans — as home prices bounce back.
Find more information about Santa Monica and Brentwood Real Estate here
.-= Simon Salloom´s last blog ..Pardon our appearance while we build an improved site for 2010! =-.
I like this post!
Simon Salloom LA Times: Sales of existing homes soar 7.4% in U.S.
This is a pretty up beat article about home sales that I am quoted in. We need more positive news these days.
Find more information about Santa Monica and Brentwood Real Estate here
.-= Simon Salloom´s last blog ..Pardon our appearance while we build an improved site for 2010! =-.
Yes, interesting article! Thank you!