Phoenix home prices to drop 23.4%? Oh for the love of Pete.
Tim Vetscher at ABC15.com “reports” this today:
According to Fiserv, a financial information and analysis firm, home prices in Phoenix are expected to lose another 23.4 percent by June of next year.
Really? A “financial information and analysis firm” can predict to the tenth of a percentage point where home prices will be in eight months?
How utterly ridiculous.
No one on the planet can make such a prediction.
Is Fiserv right?
Maybe. Maybe not. Unfortunately, Mr. Vetscher provides zero information on how Fiserv reached this conclusion. The link provided leads simply to their home page, where there is absolutely no reference to be found for this “analysis”.
Personally, I’ve never heard of Fiserv. Granted, that doesn’t mean much, so I thought I’d look them up. According to their own About page this is what they are:
One focus: It’s all about innovation
We are leaders in our industry, advocating for our clients, looking for innovative ideas to change the way you bank. We are focused on the financial industry, transforming how banks, credit unions and thrifts serve their tech savvy customers.
We are looking to the future, focusing all the resources of Fiserv around the needs of our clients. This is the new Fiserv, one brand, one company, one focus.
Hat tip to Dan Mitchell.
The Phoenix Real Estate Guy was started by Jay Thompson, and I have a little blogging problem... he liked to say...
OMG, Jay! So is our local Phoenix news destined to originate from unsubstantiated sources and Crystal (8) Balls? Problem is, too many folks trust such "Network News Reports" as fact. Jeez…
Wow, Jay, I had no idea when I sent you the link, that I'd inspire a post on TPREG!I caught it on the news, the lack of any data as to how they reached this conclusion is exactly why I sent the article to you.Part of me wondered if the report would 'turn off' some buyers, turning it into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Or, would it make buyers feel more empowered than they already are, throwing out insane lowball offers because, well, "…I saw it on TV/The Internet, so it must be true…"
Jay, Jay, Jay. You're assuming the news is about informing us.The objective of the news is to get us to watch. Useful information? A close second…but second none the less. People and companies that do this type of speculation without anything to back it up need to do something else.
A lot of market clairvoyant's out there now. Almost all are biased with an agenda. Truth is, no one knows what tomorrow's going to bring; these guys just have opinions/predictions. Guess it right, they live to get paid a little longer for making predictions. I have some predictions too. I predict in eight months, we will never hear of Fiserv again.
I read this article on another site earlier today, total BS! For that to happen you would have to have unemployment rise another 8-9% and I just don't see that happening. If we aren't at the bottom already we are close to it.
Most people think that the path to success in real estate is to buy a handful of rental properties, lease them out for 30 years, and then retire rich with millions in equity and a healthy cash flow to sustain you the rest of your life.costa rica condos
Bunk like this just makes me want to stomp my feet and spout epithets (the "news" story, not your post, Jay). 🙂 First of all, as you point out, how in the name of sweet Merry Christmas can anyone predict where housing prices are going to be in 6 months?!? Things are changing so quickly that making an accurate prediction of market conditions in 6 DAYS would be a challenge for most. Second, who the heck is this FISERV and why are they, suddenly, an authority? Third, and this is the one that really gets me, is that when news organizations report these "findings" in the sensationalized way that they do, it perpetuates fear and unease among consumers. Some that are easily swayed might hear this and think that they should wait to buy or sell, thereby contributing to the problem and helping to realize "statistical analysis" like this. GAH.It's too early in the morning to be this riled up. 🙂
Fiserv's prediction irritates me more than housingpredictor.com and they seem to just pull things out of the sky. Like when they said the population in Texas was expected to fall over 2009. This is so contrary to any census type estimate it amazes me. The worst thing about these entities that seem to pull these numbers out of the sky is they often rank well in search results leading consumers to take what they say as fact.James Wheelock
Randy – yep, just watch the video and you'll see several people already trusting what some random reporter on the street tells them about some random company's "analysis".It's frightening.
Appreciate the tip Dan! And yep, I think it will turn some off and empower others. We hear all the time, "But on TV they said…"
Silly me, thinking the news was here to investigate and report the news… 😉
I like your prediction better Doug!
I think we're at or near the bottom too. The big question is how long we'll bounce along the bottom — and no one knows.And I could be completely wrong.
Actually, that's not a bad plan. The long term holding of real estate generally produces very nice returns.
I spouted a few epithets when I read the article Melissa. It drives me bonkers. The MSM would never report on some organization that said, "THE RECESSION IS OVER, NIRVANA IS NEAR!"
Jay, Glad you took the time to research this one. I did a double take when I read it yesterday. Going to go run some numbers, as I think there are some economic realities that are not being addressed, like how much a sq/ft it costs to actually build a house.
I was asked about this by a client. Though I don't know the future any more than the creators of this report (note: crystal balls are not for sale at the corner stand, and understanding that for every economist one perspective, there is another equally powerful opposite perspective from another economist somewhere) for our local market, I do believe that other markets, particularly Southern California, seem to still have unrealistic prices for the economic conditions we have. In many respects, I see the Phoenix area as ahead of the whole curve in development of this downturn cycle with the other markets lagging. I see a lot of prices that reflect pricing well before any run-up and this is what makes me skeptical of the numbers stated in the report about the Phoenix area.
Well, maybe it was a slow news day. But, there are a lot of people to back the prediction of a further decline. No one would listen to Peter Schiff back during the boom days. No one got a chance to voted for Ron Paul. Here is a clip of one of the many money men who has taken his ball and moved to Asia: http://tinyurl.com/wat-Jim-Rogers-saysI'm not an economist, but I will make a prediction. More and more of this slime will move else where – once they decide we are not the number one military power that can protect their ill gotten wealth. And, that the new regimen will not take their money.We had a great opportunity to move the country away from automobile manufacturing and oil consumption into a new era. But, old habits and lobbyists are hard to stop.
It never ceases to amaze me what passes for journalism these days. You're absolutley right, "The objective of the news is to get us to watch." The "news" is more about attracting readers/viewers than it is about jouralism and sensational headlines are incredibly good at drawing eyeballs in.
I think it's clear from the barrage of "Balloon Boy" coverage that no, the media does not cover the news anymore. They cover "stories" that they think will attract eyeballs so that they can sell on-air advertising. You have to tune into the McNeil Lehrer hour or C-Span to get news that's actually based on facts. To simply guess at the projected annual increase or decline that a market might take in the next 12 months is the height of irresponsibility. The public is confused enough as it is without so-called news organizations flat out making things up.
I heard this figure on the radio today in Washington D.C., so everyone is talking about it.When the Dow hit 6,500 in February 2009 and Jim Cramer mentioned something about the Dow possibly heading toward 4,500, I thought "maybe I will just keep that cash safe in the money market fund."Um, the Dow is now at 9,949. Bad news sells.
According to Yahoo!Finace, Fiserv predicted the fall of the housing market, just not such a steep decline. here's the link http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Homes-About-to-ge…..I actually agree that prices will fall again, but probably not 25% here in Phoenix, i would expect more of a 10-15% drop based on: short sales becoming foreclosures, unemployment remaining high, mortgage rates bouncing higher starting in 2Q next year (unless Fed keeps buying it down to absurd levels), and another big chunk of foreclosures coming to market from soured loans in prime and ARM defaults. Plus the mortgage bankers association came out and said new mortgage apps were down like 13% this month? drop in demand + more supply = lower prices. But then again, who knows really??? just an opinion
Great Information, and well worth reading. Thanks!! I'll be back to see more.
How come real estate agents go so psycho when people predict that home prices will drop?
Are you so worried about your commissions?
Why not think about the great opportunities for people who cannot normally afford homes.
Instead of flippers, who got us into this mess.
Thanks Julie for stopping by and commenting – Case-Shiller I've heard of, I've just never heard Fiserv associated with them. But that's neither here nor there. My issue isn't with Fiserv or CS (though broad-based market indexes do have problems — real estate is local). My problem here is yet more pathetic main-stream media reporting. "Fiserv (or whoever) says X" is lame with no supporting data or analysis behind it.And really, projecting home prices eight months into the future to the tenth of a decimal point just seems silly. As an aside, if you've got any control over that site you linked (or know who does) you might want to get the "news" updated. The most recent story highlighted on that page is from November of 2008. That's hardly news, particularly given how dynamic the housing market is.
The media routinely references Fiserv home price data in its housing market articles because Fiserv produces the Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes. The Fiserv Case-Shiller® Indexes are recognized as the most authoritative and trustworthy home price change measures in the industry. The Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes facilitate the measurement of market appreciation or depreciation by accurately tracking residential home prices over time. For more information on the indexes, please visit http://www.fiservlendingsolutions.com/CSI/Home….
We all knew that this recession affected everyone a lot. Jay, you are much specific about the loss(in percentage) and it was useful for most of the brokers who thinks making money is pretty good easy. From this article I learned that hard work earns!.
Greg –
I didn't “go psycho” over a prediction that home prices will drop. Like I said in the article, maybe they will, maybe they won't. I went psycho over lousy reporting — referencing an analysis but providing ZERO info as to what that analysis contained, or what data the conclusion was based on.
And honestly, predicting a price change eight months from now to the tenth of a percentage point is ludicrous. I'd say the same thing if they were “reporting” a predicted increase in prices.
And no I'm not worried, at all, about my commissions. The simple fact is no matter how lousy the market is, no matter what happens with interest rates, people still buy and sell homes every single day.
Agreed that flippers were *part* of what got us into this mess. Lenders giving loans to anyone with a pulse was another significant part of the problem. Let's be real, should someone that can't document their income, with no job, and nothing to put down be given a home loan?
I agree that making predictions like they have is irresponsible journalism at best. I will I could predict the market, any market with any degree of certainty. Headline seekers it sounds like…
Thats right totaly agree, Money makes money and all the big guys they are not bothered as they have got everthing they need. the banks have been greedy
Yeah I thought the same, I thoughtI should keep my money in lloyds shaires since they are at a good price and then it totally dropped. should of kept it under my bed. lol
This is just publicity stunt of Fiserv. Now everyone in talking about them and even some people starts believing there prediction.
Yikes!! Surprising the Phoenix area has that much more to fall, but there was certainly A LOT of speculators gobbling up many of the new homes like in the Surprise area. Here in Orange County we're predicted to to fall another 11% or so by June 2010. Although the demand is back and buyers are back out making aggressive offers or foreclosures continue to drive prices down.
I think another 23% drop is hardly realistic. There have been enough wounds to heal for decades but I think the recovery will be slow and is still several years away – at least 3-5 years.
Actually if you read Novembers stats, median home prices are up 3k from 140k to 143k… in fact, the number of resales is up 5400 from 3500 last year this time. Although a wave of foreclosures is expected 1st quarter '10, Phoenix home prices are on the incline. Good news for investors.
I like this post!
Simon Salloom LA Times: Sales of existing homes soar 7.4% in U.S.
This is a pretty up beat article about home sales that I am quoted in. We need more positive news these days.
Find more information about Santa Monica and Brentwood Real Estate here
.-= Simon Salloom´s last blog ..Pardon our appearance while we build an improved site for 2010! =-.
Good thing you have done here, Thanks!
Simon Salloom LA Times: Southern California home prices and sales improve in November
Southern California's real estate industry, decimated by the mortgage meltdown and housing bust, is stirring to life again — even making hiring plans — as home prices bounce back.
Find more information about Santa Monica and Brentwood Real Estate here
.-= Simon Salloom´s last blog ..Pardon our appearance while we build an improved site for 2010! =-.
Guys, it looks like you have similar problems to the ones we face in Spain. The economy is pretty dire here with estimates of unemployment at around 20%. Much of the Spanish economy has been based on property and construction and sales to British & German clients. Property prices have fallen over a three year period but now look very affordable. There is a recovery of interest going on from North European clients and some Brits coming back. I would no t bet against further price falls but the market does look more optimistic than 12 months ago. I am not convinced that the media here really reflect this. Same on this side of the pond unfortunately!!
The economy everywhere is drastically floating. Some people cannot work. The bad thing is, media does all the cover ups and everything told by the government.