The government never ceases to amaze me. It was just a few weeks ago that a “bail out” plan was introduced, rejected, re-introduced and passed. There were calls that IMMEDIATE ACTION MUST TAKE PLACE! and Presidential candidates were jetting back to Washington to “help”.
$700,000,000,000 (that’s 700 billion with a “B”) was allotted. Talks centered around the government buying distressed mortgages.
Then the fed started buying chunks of banks and AIG.
Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson pulled the plug on purchasing troubled assets — the initial focus of the bail out plan.
Now they’re talking about helping to increase the availability of student loans, auto loans and credit cards in the next consumer focused iteration of the plan.
Meanwhile, Wall Street investment giants Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley — both recipients of bail out funds — have earmarked 13.2 billion dollars for end of year bonuses to their employees (source).
I will freely admit that I can’t get my arms around this whole bailout / rescue thing. 15 hours of college economics and finance does not make me an expert by any stretch of the imagination.
But I’d like to think that the freaking Secretary of the United States Treasury at least has a clue.
The way this plan flip-flops back and forth certainly causes me to sit back and wonder about the Treasury’s general clue level. From this observers slightly educated eye, this thing has all appearances of being more of a “Lets throw tens of billions of dollars hither and yon and see what, if anything, sticks”.
And that scares me.
The Phoenix Real Estate Guy was started by Jay Thompson, and I have a little blogging problem... he liked to say...
You have to think — does a president without a clue know how to appoint someone with a clue.
Do you ask the person who wrecked your car to fix your car???
They are just running out the clock hoping that they can leave this giant mess on the Obama administration.
Rush Limbaugh called this the Obama Recession yesterday! Ha!
I don't think I ever heard an ass larger than Rush Limbaugh…
Your hours of college-level finance classes trumps mine. However, I've heard enough economists admit their own ignorance of the complexities with our economy to know that it's likely… unknowable.
The big guys are throwing around Really Big numbers. Plans are being made, much of which (I hope) are with the best of intentions. The trouble is… they just may not work.
Rarely does a day go buy where I don't make a leap of faith on some decision, partially feeling like a fraud with half a clue and the other part trusting that it will be OK based on prior experience. I've come to realize that EVERYONE does this, even those tossing those Big Numbers around and making recommendations on reviving the economy. Here's to crossing our fingers and hoping the rules of the game haven't changed so much that their best-guesses fail.
**Evo Terra´s last blog post..Taking a mulligan on Twitter</abbr></abbr>
I think it is pretty amazing that one person has so much power to decide on how that much money gets spent. When they talk about freezing executive bonuses that seems like a joke. "Freezing?" Like the bonuses they were getting last year were okay, just no increases?
In my opinion the warning of impending collapse without the bailout is the second greatest lie the Bush administration perpetrated on the American public and the reason for it was the same…to line the pockets of his corporate buddies.
It’s a complete mess yesterday Barney Frank in a Congressional sub-committee he heads said "the government is going to be buying all the bad loans or (problem loans) and then reducing the borrowers principals to make them want to stay?????If this starts happening no one is going to pay their mortgage…ON The same day (yesterday) a mile down the road at the same time Paulson (The Treasury President) says "The government is just going to keep with the trying get the banks to do better mitigation so they (the banks) can do the modifications"……No banks are really doing modifications I mean "some" are happening but the simple fact is a lot of these loans had people's payment going from 600/mo to 1600/mo how do you modify that? Especially when the home is worth 60% of what it was its a complete mess and this money is just going to be wasted.
The largest problem, especially here in AZ, is that the whole factor of INVENTORY is completely ignored.
What good is sustaining house prices artificially or preventing foreclosure, when demand is kept low due to thousands of vacant homes.
Joe Blow may be able to stay in his house for now, if he's one of the lucky ones that falls in between the government's narrow guidelines for programs, but what happens when something else happens (layoffs, medical bills, etc) and he has to sell?
Until we focus on the massive inventory out there, we can't do anything about individual homes. One is the result of another.
It's like putting up a tent in the middle of the jungle and crying about bugs getting in.
The problem isn't bugs getting in your tent, it's that you're in the freaking jungle. Change that and you'll find the bugs seem to vanish pretty quickly.
**Edge´s last blog post..Property Taxes Going Up, MythBusters, Central Banks, and How Our Inflation Compares To Japan</abbr></abbr>
The government is pretty much like a kid with credit card. They look for every opportunity they can find to spend money, and then sit back in amazement when our economy goes down the toilet. Not to bright!
But on another note, I agree about Limbaugh, he is an a**!
I don't know how any of this is going to work out but it seems to me that Hank isn't all that good a *salesman* for any of the programs put forward thus far.
**howard´s last blog post..Dear Hank [I want to be a bank]</abbr></abbr>
I don't get it either and yes it is scary, I'm being told over and over that "Only time will tell", well, duh. But we just don't have much time left, ya know.
With much thanks,
Betsy Buchanan
**Betsy Buchanan´s last blog post..So many leaves, so little time</abbr></abbr>
Hi Jay,
You don't get it because there's nothing logical to get here.
It's business as usual for this administration. Yes, before the partisans sling arrows, there's plenty of blame to go around but the incompetence at the top remains alive and well, in fact, stronger than ever. Bad policy and the lack of leadership make for a bad cocktail and an even worse hangover.
When too many people vote for a guy who they think they can drink a beer with, this is what you get. When you're dazed and confused, you should admit to it, pack your bags, and head for greener pastures.
Fortunately for America, our president will be forced back to the greener pastures of his Crawford, Texas ranch. Unfortunately, his return is nearly 8 years too late.
**Property Qwest Blog – Real Estate News and Housing Data´s last blog post..October 2008 Foreclosure Filings Rise Yet Again</abbr></abbr>
I think it bears repeating that the money given to corporations is a loan, not a gift, and that it is supposed to be paid back, with interest. The companies need the loan, because their credit ratings are so bad, they can't get a loan the conventional way. When we bailed out Chrysler 20+ years ago, the US tax payer was rewarded handsomely when Chrysler did not fail. Will the current bailouts be as smart a decision…only time can tell.
Personally, I feel more comfortable loaning a corporation money than giving money to banks so they will be encouraged to modify bad loans given to bad borrowers with bad credit. I don't see how that strategy helps the majority, even if it is what the (largely democratic) congress pushed for, and I don't mind the Secretary of the Treasury realizing that's a bad strategy and essentially refusing to give the money away.
**Steve Belt´s last blog post..What percentage of the list price should you offer on a foreclosure property?</abbr></abbr>
Hank and the rest of the folks in the Bush administration (aside from their neighborly beer drinking credentials) are Gawd-awful at explaining things and "selling" them to the American people. None of us should feel bad that we don't understand the mess we're in. How could we? Nobody in the Bush administration is doing enough to explain it to us.
Remember when Hank sold the original $700B bailout package by telling Congress that the consequences of not doing something were "too terrible to think about." WTH?
President-Elect Obama explained the consequences quite succinctly (surprisingly, for him) in the Presidential Debates: the credit market for short term loans freezes, companies can't get loans to cover payroll & expand their business, so eventually they lay off workers – that means you!
Last Sunday the NY Times ran a piece that explained the whole subprime mortage-securitization-CDO-credit default swap-steaming mess in terms most anybody could understand. (http://is.gd/7p4C)
Hank & the Bush administration just aren't using their grownup words! Carelessness? Maybe. Ignorance? Possibly. A desire to line their corporate cronies' pockets? Almost certainly.
Thank goodness they're on their way back to Crawford soon. Let them all try to explain their vision for a Presidential library to local contractors. At least there'll be somebody in the real estate construction industry with a long-lasting job.
**Heather´s last blog post..My Boss Highlighted in National Media Outlet</abbr></abbr>
I want to go in to every banks' office that was bailed out, find their executives and beat them.
How are employees still getting bonuses? YOUR BANKS FAILED SO SPECTACULARLY THE TAXPAYERS HAD TO GIVE YOU MONEY!
What in the hell kind of performance plan are they on? Why isn't the government run by really smart people?
This country was built on the back of small business. The world was built by huge, faceless corporations. Why are we giving them the most help?
George Herbert Walker Bush called it "voodoo economics", but then he would rather be president than right (a little twist on Henry Clay's words). Lighten up people, it could be much worst. Imagine the world if the Soviets didn't blink. This too shall pass.
See, we found some drunk ex-college kids and gave them this here money (or lack thereof) quandry – to stall for time they asked for a butt load of money they never thought they would get. Now they've got the money and still have no clue how to fix the issue… Just watch, they'll come up with a new bigger financial need in the future before they can (in the words of a SNL character) FIX IT!
One disaster scenario is where people lose faith in the financial system entirely.
Now it's obvious that Paulson didn't know what the hell he was doing and that he was practicing spaghetti economics, throw everything against the wall and see what sticks.
A couple more mistakes like that and the viability of the entire financial system will be questioned. Two more strikes and we're out.
Another doomsday scenario that Michael Oliver mentioned is where the government partially pays off the principle of people who aren't paying their mortgage. Then, of course, everyone who is underwater will stop paying their mortgage to participate in the program and HUGE numbers of people are underwater. That would be the end of the world as we know it.
At least my agricultural background could finally come in handy in this new world order. The only thing we would be missing is zombies.
**John Wake´s last blog post..Extreme Makeover to “Search Phoenix Area Listings”</abbr></abbr>
It certainly feels like our government is burying the poor to help the super rich, however, keep in mind we have a Secretary of the Treasury that received $500,000,000 when he retired from Goldman Sachs.
However, until we, as voters and as people rise up and start to care about who we vote for, none of this will change. Oh, wait, "Change has come."
That just goes to show you that you can not trust anything that politicians tell you. They have no clue what it will take to save the economy and seems like their solution is to take the money patch some holes, but I don't think that a "band aid" approach will work. They're trying to save companies that caused the economic collapse, but those homeowners who were tricked into getting 50 year mortgages with zero down are out of luck.
Great post Jay.
Have you seen the Nextel commercial "If Firefighters Ran the World"? It is hilarious in making fun of the huge amounts of time and money we spend trying to fix problems that may have simpler answers. I don't know what the answer is, but I am scared to think that we just about doubled our deficient on a plan that in the long run may not work. Yes, scary.
**Linda Craft-Raleigh NC Real Estate Expert´s last blog post..Open House Cruise Winner Announced</abbr></abbr>
This is simply RIDICULOUS. What more one could say!?!
And I agree with Jim Gatos' statement, " I don’t think I ever heard an ass larger than Rush Limbaugh…" No second thoughts!
God bless
**Mortgage advisor´s last blog post..Applying for a mortgage loan in another state</abbr></abbr>
The Bush administration simply pulled off an encore performance of the Iraq pitch with the whole bailout proposal – scare congress and the public into action claiming there is simply not enough time to gather all the facts. Receive sweeping, vague powers and then start dishing out dough to your buddies.
Rolling Stone has an interesting piece which draws even more parallels between Iraq war spending and the bailout. Now I know, RS isn't the most objective source with their unabashed liberal bias, but it certainly makes you think.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/240127…
And to think this morning the newspaper was talking about major cities that want bailout money! Oh my, we sure have opened a can of worms.
**Julissa Jumper´s last blog post..Steady, Steady… A Market Update</abbr></abbr>
Julissa is right – a can of worms. now every poorly run business is like the Us auto industry is going to ask for a bailout.
What amazes me is when senators like Barney Frank say If the banks don't start acting responsibly with the money they are going to put restrictive conditions an any more money. Is he saying that money he already gave away that kind of money WITHOUT any conditions? Outrageous, how do these guys get re-elected
**Ned´s last blog post..Why Would You Ever Foreclose on Yourself?</abbr></abbr>
I'm scared. Who knows where we will end up. It's clear that nobody knows whats going to happen. I think it is a strategy of "lets throw a lot of money up against the wall until something works."
That money was allocated for keeping the financial services sector going. But it looks like 25 Bil will be diverted to the auto industry. I understand that they need to bail out banks, because if businesses can't get business loans the economy takes serious damage. But I don't see why they would bail out other businesses. In bad times weaker businesses are suppose to under. It means bigger market share for the stronger businesses when the economy turns.
Bailing out weak businesses is a bad idea.
None of it makes sense. If you or I dug a giant debt hole, the fix would be to get another job, cut back lifestyle, and pay down debt. It bothers me deeply that people think that they can fix this so easily in Washington. We have let them straddle us all with debt and the solution is going to be work harder, longer, and pay more taxes to pay for stupidity. Yes, those that were prudent and cautious in their affairs will have to pay too, perhaps even more.
**Cal´s last blog post..Snake Hunting at Lake Washington, MS</abbr></abbr>
To me it seems as if money and greed got us into this mess; how do they expect to use money and greed to get us out of it? The money proposed in the stimulus package requires that the money be spent to mend the broken economy. Too many people need to use the money to pay their debts; not get a big screen TV.
I don´t know about you but I think that it will takes years before we see some improvement in real estate business. Banks are afraid to lend money and people are afraid to borrow the money…such a mess…
**Maria´s last blog post..3 Major Disadvantages of Bad Credit Card</abbr></abbr>
hello,
I can remember reding abot Sen. Judd Gregg (NH)patting himself on the back of how he was the author of the bank bailout bill. Now he has disappeared from the face of the earth and has left the Democrats to figure out what the heck happened. he and Paulson and Pres. Bush screamed they needed to save the banks , to save the country from an economic disaster. Remember during the campaign McCain running to and fro like a madman,"British are coming the British are coming" if you want to find out who's to balme ,they always say follow the money..well someone had to type this bill out and we all know…that no member of congress actually read it…no more than they did at the time of the Iraq War. so my peace I leave you..follow the author and the writer of the bill and then the money..someone knows how it got in their… AIG
Nancy
Jay, I don't think anyone gets (or got) it. Something had to be done and throwing money at it always seems to be the answer. I'm not sure whether loan modification is working – would like one person to tell me that they got their loan modified and can (and will) now make their payment.
Most of the listings in our MLS are foreclosures or short sales. We keep setting records – month after month – for the number of new notice of defaults that are being recorded on properties.
That said, I'm finding that most of the short sales that are out there with offers will have multiple offers on them. Examples:
1) House #1 priced in the mid-$600K had 2 offers and we became #3
2) House #2 priced at $99K had 6 offers – winner was an all cash offer above asking price
3) House #3 priced in the $115K range had 2 offers and we became #3
I finally got smart and starting calling the listing agent prior to showing the property and asking about the number of offers.
Real estate seems to be coming back in this area. Prices are gone down to about 2004 levels but that was needed due to the out-of-control appreciation we saw in 2005-2007. The $8000 tax credit available to first time buyers has really brought the buyers out here. Hopefully, since it seems to be working, I hope that that incentive is kept in place past its current deadline of December 1st.
**Karen Geselle´s last blog post..“Will Idaho Lead The Recovery?”</abbr></abbr>